' ' Cinema Romantico: Bold (And Bolder) Oscar Predictions

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Bold (And Bolder) Oscar Predictions

The following are the exact predictions I submitted to both the LAMB Oscar Contest and to the Outguess Ebert Oscar contest which is to say that if I get these all right no one is beating me which is to say this predictions list is a most dangerous molotov cocktail of makes-no-sense-unless-you're-on-my-brainwave. Here goes.

Best Picture. Nominees: "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "Inception", "The Kids Are All Right", "The King's Speech", "127 Hours", "The Social Network", "Toy Story 3", "True Grit", "Winter's Bone." My Prediction: "Winter's Bone." Because if it happens I want to say I called it. (Slightly Related Tangent: Did you know Kobe Bryant recently said of teammate Pau Gasol this: "(He's) very white swan. I need him to be black swan"? Yeah, that's right, so until arguably the most famous athlete in the world compares Lamar Odom to Mark Zuckerberg or Ron Artest to King George VI, "Black Swan" haters, ya best step off.)

"Inception" was likely eliminated from the Best Picture race when an article at ScreenComplaint.com accused the film of being "riddled with factual inaccuracies regarding the abilities of the subconscious.'"
 Best Director. Nominees: Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan", Joel and Ethan Coen for "True Grit", David Fincher for "The Social Network", Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech", David O. Russell for "The Fighter." My Prediction: Darren Aronofsky. Why? Because I'm biased, that's why. Deal with it.

Best Actor. Nominees: Javier Bardem in "Bitiful", Jeff Bridges in "True Grit", Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network", Colin Firth in "The King's Speech", James Franco in "127 Hours". My Prediction: James Franco. Has that year's Oscar host ever won an award? I don't think so. Let's make this happen, if only so we could see Anne Hathaway feign bitterness, which I think would be quite funny. Imagine it. James Franco: "You were nominated, Anne, what, two years ago? But you didn't win? Right?" Anne Hathaway: "Why don't you eat my a--, Franco." It would be the single greatest moment in Oscar hosting history.

Best Actress. Nominees: Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right", Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole", Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone", Natalie Portman in "Black Swan", Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine". My Prediction: Nicole Kidman. Wait, you're thinking. This is the moron who has spent the last 6 weeks shouting from the mountain tops about how Natalie Portman's performance in "Black Swan" is the greatest thing since Gershwin composed "Rhapsody In Blue" and now he's picking Kidman? What gives? Easy. I don't want to jinx Natalie Portman and since Nicole Kidman already has her Oscar, I can risk jinxing her.

Best Supporting Actor. Nominees: Christian Bale in "The Fighter", John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone", Jeremy Renner in "The Town", Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right", Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech". My Prediction: John Hawkes. That's right, peeps, he's gonna go all Villanova '85 and punk big, bad Bale.

Best Supporting Actress. Nominees: Amy Adams in "The Fighter", Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech", Melissa Leo in "The Fighter", Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit", Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom". My Prediction: Amy Adams. I said it 6 weeks ago and I'm sticking to it.

Best Animated Feature. Nominees: "How To Train Your Dragon", "The Illusionist", "Toy Story 3". My Prediction: "Toy Story 3". I'm not a complete idiot.

Best Original Screenplay. Nominees: "Another Year" by Mike Leigh, "The Fighter" by Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy, "Inception" by Christopher Nolan, "The Kids Are All Right" by Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko, "The King's Speech" by David Seidler. My Prediction: Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko. My heart is not truly on fire for any of these scripts but I'll pick this one because I am in love with the speech Julianne Moore gives at the end. "Marriage is hard. Just two people slogging through the shit, year after year, getting older, changing. It's a fucking marathon, okay?" Okay.

Best Adapted Screenplay. Nominees: "127 Hours" by Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle, "The Social Network" by Aaron Sorkin, "Toy Story 3" by Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich, "True Grit" by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "Winter's Bone" by Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini. My Prediction: Frankly, I wanted to leave this category blank in protest of my favorite screenplay, far, far and away, of the year - David Lindsay-Abaire's "Rabbit Hole" - not being nominated but apparently both contests anticipated my protest and forced me to select someone. Damn it all to hell. So I pick Granik & Rossellini for "Winter's Bone" since it's my second favorite screenplay of the year.

Will someone please explain why this man was not nominated?
Achievement In Art Direction. Nominees: "Alice In Wonderland", "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1", "Inception", "The King's Speech", "True Grit." My Prediction: "The King's Speech." I'm very afraid, though, that between now and Sunday someone is going to write an article bemoaning the historical inaccuracies of the art director's re-creation of Lionel Logue's office.

Achievement In Cinematography. Nominees: Matthew Libatique for "Black Swan", Wally Pfister for "Inception", Danny Cohen for "The King's Speech", Jeff Cronenweth for "The Social Network", Roger Deakins for "True Grit". My Prediction: Matthew Libatique. Woo Woo!!! All aboard the "Black Swan" bandwagon!!! 

Achievement in Costume Design. Nominees: Colleen Atwood for "Alice In Wonderland", Antonella Cannarozzi for "I Am Love", Jenny Beaven for "The King's Speech", Sandy Powell for "The Tempest", Mary Zophres for "True Grit." My Prediction: Sandy Powell, not because she won last year, though she did, but because I absolutely loved the speech she gave. She dedicated her Oscar "to the costume designers that don’t do movies about dead monarchs or glittery musicals. The designers that do the contemporary films and the low-budget ones actually don’t get as recognized as they should, and they work as hard."  Exactly. Which is why Cinema Romantico's Best Costume Design of 2010 goes to Erin Benach for "Blue Valentine."

Achievement in Film Editing. Nominees: Andrew Weisblum for "Black Swan", Pamela Martin for "The Fighter", Tariq Anwar for "The King's Speech", Jon Harris for "127 Hours", Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for "The Social Network". My Prediction: Andrew Weisblum. Hey, what'd I tell you? Also, the 3rd act of "Black Swan" was my favorite stretch of film - by far - in 2010 and a lot of that had to do with the editing.

Achievement in Makeup. Nominees: "Barney's Version", "The Way Back", "The Wolfman". My Prediction: "The Wolfman". It's, like, a movie about a man who turns into a wolf.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score). Nominees: John Powell for "How To Train Your Dragon", Hans Zimmer for "Inception", Alexandre Desplat for "The King's Speech", A.R. Rahman for "127 Hours", Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for "The Social Network". My Prediction: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. I really, really, really, really, really like this.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song). Nominees: "Coming Home" from "Country Strong", Music and Lyrics by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey. "I See The Light" from "Tangled", Music and Lyrics by Alan Menken, Lyrics by Glenn Slater. "If I Rise" from "127 Hours", Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyrics by Dido and Rollo Armstrong. "We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3", Music and Lyrics by Randy Newman. My Prediction: "If I Rise", specifically because Florence + Machine will be performing the song at the Oscars in place of Dido and I secretly yearn that instead  of performing "If I Rise" she performs one of her own songs instead and the Academy, realizing Florence + Machine is, like, 387 million x better than all this nominated crap, have an on-the-spot re-vote and give the Oscar to Florence.

Can Florence make history and become the first person ever to win an Oscar despite not having been nominated?
Best Documentary Feature. Nominees: "Exit Through The Gift Shop", "Gasland", "Inside Job", "Restrepo", "Waste Land." My Prediction: "Exit Through The Gift Shop" because you know everyone is jonesing to hear Banksy give an acceptance speech.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year. Nominees: Biutiful (Mexico), Dogtooth (Greece), In A Better World (Denmark), Incendies (Canada), Hors la Loi (Algeria). My Prediction: "Hors la Loi." Because it's been accused of "falsifying history" and nothing says Best Picture winner like accusations of "falsifying."  

Achievement in Sound Editing. Nominees: "Inception", "Toy Story 3", "TRON: Legacy", "True Grit", "Unstoppable." My Prediction: "Unstoppable." You know what they say, never bet against a movie about a runaway train starring Denzel Washington. 

Achievement in Sound Mixing. Nominees: "Inception", "The King's Speech", "Salt", "The Social Network", "True Grit." My Prediction: "Salt." Because I love this freaking movie.

C'mon, man, Evelyn Salt deserves something. How 'bout Achievement In Sound Mixing?
 Achievement in Visual Effects. Nominees: "Alice In Wonderland", "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1", "Hereafter", "Inception", "Iron Man 2". My Prediction: "Inception." Because that rotating hallway sequence was biscuits and gravy, baby.

Best Documentary Short Subject. Nominees: "Killing In The Name", "Poster Girl", "Strangers No More", "Sun Come Up", "The Warriors Of Qiugang." My Prediction: "The Warriors Of Qiugang." In reading up on it I very much would like to see it. 

Best Short Film (Animated). Nominees: "Day & Night", "The Gruffalo", "Let's Pollute", "The Lost Thing", "Madagascar". My Prediction: "The Gruffalo." Because it rhymes with Ruffalo.

Best Short Film (Live Action). Nominees: "The Confession", "The Crush", "God Of Love", "Na Wewe", "Wish 143". My Prediction: "The Crush." Because it shares the name of Alicia Silverstone's 1993 "masterpiece". Sigh......remember when Alicia Silverstone was an "it" girl? Or does that just reinforce my old age? 


Simon said...

Guy, do not fuck with Bale. He looks ready to explode.

Castor said...

Very brave predictions but I doubt any of those happens ;) Winter's Bone will probably end up getting the least amount of love of all 10 Best Pictures nominees.

Christian Bale better win or he will truly turn into a psycho that he secretly is ahah

I'm with you on Amy Adams though :)

Nick Prigge said...

Maybe Bale will leave me an irate voicemail. That would likely be the greatest honor of my blogging career.

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